⚽ FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group D · Matchday 3
Türkiye
🇹🇷
Türkiye
FIFA Rank #30 · Tournament Odds +5000
VS
USA
🇺🇸
USA
FIFA Rank #11 · Tournament Odds +1200
📅 Friday, June 26, 2026
·
🕕 4:00 PM ET
·
🏟 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
·
📺 Fox Sports / Telemundo
Live Odds — Updated Jun 26 · 21+ · Gambling involves risk
Odds subject to change · Must be 21+ · Responsible Gambling
✦ PitchIQ AI Prediction
50,000 SIMULATIONS
Most likely result
USA to Win — 2–1
27%
Türkiye Win
26%
Draw
47%
USA Win
MD3: Group D winner decided here
USA likely already qualified — rotation risk
Güler vs USA defense — decisive duel
Both may have R16 spots secured — intensity concerns
Match Analysis

Türkiye: Türkiye Push for Group D Top Spot

If Türkiye arrive needing a win to secure the group, Güler and Calhanoglu will be at maximum intensity. A top-of-group finish avoids potentially tougher R16 opponents — the motivation is real regardless of USA's result.

Türkiye's ability to absorb pressure and counter quickly suits this format. Güler's dribbling creates fouls in dangerous positions — Calhanoglu from set pieces against the USA's aerial defenders is a genuine concern.

1.9
xG/90 Qualifying
Güler
Tournament Star
+5000
Tournament Odds

USA: USA May Rest Stars for R16

The USA, almost certainly already through after two wins in Group D, face the classic group finale dilemma. Berhalter must balance player freshness for the knockout round vs. securing first place in the group.

Even a USA B side with McKennie and Pepi starting should handle Türkiye. The squad depth after the massive investment in the program is real.

2.3
xG/90 Qualifying
4
MD1 Goals Scored
+1200
Tournament Odds

Head-to-Head

USA lead all-time 3–1 with the most recent meeting a 2-1 USA win in 2023.

Team Stats Comparison
🇹🇷 Türkiye 🇺🇸 USA
1.9
xG per 90
2.3
47%
Possession
60%
0.7
Goals Conceded/90
0.8
83%
Pass Accuracy
83%
⚡ AI Betting Picks
BEST VALUE
USA Win
Even rotating, USA quality is too high — depth wins this
AI PICK
-240
Draw
Türkiye needs a win — USA rotation could create opportunity at +250
VALUE
+250
Arda Güler Anytime Scorer
Against a rotated USA defense, Güler creates moments
HOT
+200
Place These Bets at DraftKings →
⭐ Fantasy Picks — This Match
DFS OPTIMIZED
1
🇺🇸
Christian Pulisic
FWD · USA · 27 yrs · May rest but tournament form demands selection
30.4
Proj. Pts
18% owned
2
🇹🇷
Arda Güler
MID · Türkiye · 20 yrs · Must-win context, Real Madrid quality
32.8
Proj. Pts
20% owned
3
🇺🇸
Weston McKennie
MID · USA · 27 yrs · Likely starter in rotation, box-to-box threat
24.1
Proj. Pts
10% owned
4
🇹🇷
Hakan Calhanoglu
MID · Türkiye · 31 yrs · Set piece specialist, late-game impact
26.4
Proj. Pts
12% owned
5
🇺🇸
Ricardo Pepi
FWD · USA · 23 yrs · Rotation starter — physical, presses defenders
22.8
Proj. Pts
9% owned
Match venue