⚽ FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group D · Matchday 3
Paraguay
🇵🇾
Paraguay
FIFA Rank #60 · Tournament Odds +20000
VS
Australia
🇦🇺
Australia
FIFA Rank #25 · Tournament Odds +6000
📅 Friday, June 26, 2026
·
🕕 4:00 PM ET
·
🏟 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
·
📺 Fox Sports / Telemundo
Live Odds — Updated Jun 26 · 21+ · Gambling involves risk
Odds subject to change · Must be 21+ · Responsible Gambling
✦ PitchIQ AI Prediction
50,000 SIMULATIONS
Most likely result
Paraguay to Win — 2–1
43%
Paraguay Win
30%
Draw
27%
Australia Win
MD3: Third place battle — potential R16 spot
Both teams fighting for survival in Group D
Paraguay need a big win on goal difference
Australia showed quality in MD1 and MD2
Match Analysis

Paraguay: Paraguay's Survival Match

Paraguay need maximum points here to have any chance of qualification via the third-place route. Sanabria must fire, Almiron must create, and the defensive collapse that led to 4 conceded against the USA cannot repeat.

Morínigo will set up more aggressively than usual — Paraguay have nothing to lose. Their set piece quality is underrated and Sanabria wins headers against any center-back.

1.1
xG/90 Qualifying
Sanabria
Goal Threat
+20000
Tournament Odds

Australia: Australia Looking for a First World Cup R16

Australia arrive needing only a draw to advance if their other results went well. The Socceroos showed organized defending and dangerous counter-attacks — Martin Boyle gave both Türkiye and USA problems.

A win here could see Australia advance as group runners-up. Mat Ryan will likely face 12+ shots — his performance in goal determines the result.

1.3
xG/90 Qualifying
Mathew Ryan
Goalkeeper Key
+6000
Tournament Odds

Head-to-Head

Australia lead all-time 2–1 in recent meetings. No prior World Cup meetings.

Team Stats Comparison
🇵🇾 Paraguay 🇦🇺 Australia
1.1
xG per 90
1.3
49%
Possession
50%
2.1
Goals Conceded/90
1.1
76%
Pass Accuracy
78%
⚡ AI Betting Picks
BEST VALUE
Draw
Both teams reasonably balanced — 30% draw probability at fair value
VALUE
+270
Both Teams to Score
Paraguay must score, Australia attack on the counter
AI PICK
-115
Antonio Sanabria Anytime Scorer
Aerial threat, set piece quality, desperate for a goal in must-win
HOT
+195
Place These Bets at DraftKings →
⭐ Fantasy Picks — This Match
DFS OPTIMIZED
1
🇵🇾
Antonio Sanabria
FWD · Paraguay · 29 yrs · Aerial threat, set piece danger, motivated
24.8
Proj. Pts
9% owned
2
🇦🇺
Martin Boyle
FWD · Australia · 31 yrs · Counter-attack pace, best attacker
22.4
Proj. Pts
8% owned
3
🇵🇾
Miguel Almiron
MID · Paraguay · 32 yrs · Newcastle quality, most creative in this squad
20.1
Proj. Pts
7% owned
4
🇦🇺
Awer Mabil
FWD · Australia · 28 yrs · Left-side threat, pace vs Paraguay right side
18.6
Proj. Pts
6% owned
5
🇦🇺
Mathew Ryan
GK · Australia · 33 yrs · Will face 12+ shots — saves determine outcome
21.3
Proj. Pts
7% owned
Match venue