⚽ FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group F · Matchday 3
Japan
🇯🇵
Japan
FIFA Rank #18 · Tournament Odds +3000
VS
Sweden
🇸🇪
Sweden
FIFA Rank #21 · Tournament Odds +5000
📅 Friday, June 26, 2026
·
🕕 4:00 PM ET
·
🏟 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
·
📺 Fox Sports / Telemundo
Live Odds — Updated Jun 26 · 21+ · Gambling involves risk
Odds subject to change · Must be 21+ · Responsible Gambling
✦ PitchIQ AI Prediction
50,000 SIMULATIONS
Most likely result
Sweden to Win — 2–1
27%
Japan Win
27%
Draw
46%
Sweden Win
MD3: Group F second place spot available
Japan giant-killers — never underestimate Moriyasu
Isak + Gyokeres vs Japan's high defensive line
Under 2.5: Japan defend deep, Sweden clinical
Match Analysis

Japan: Japan Playing for Survival

Japan need a win here to advance — likely means beating Sweden with their high press and quick transition. The blueprint from 2022 (beat Germany 2-1, beat Spain 2-1) involved absorbing first half pressure and unleashing second-half substitutes.

Mitoma from the left and Doan on the right give Japan genuine width. If they can keep it 0-0 at halftime, anything is possible when Moriyasu makes his halftime changes.

1.7
xG/90 Qualifying
Mitoma + Doan
Wide Threat
+3000
Tournament Odds

Sweden: Sweden Already Through — How Hard Will They Push?

Sweden likely arrive having already qualified. Janne Andersson must decide how hard to push for top spot vs. protecting key players for the knockouts. Even a rotated Sweden should have enough quality.

Isak and Gyokeres remain dangerous regardless of who starts. Sweden's physical profile against Japan's technical press is a genuine chess match.

1.8
xG/90 Qualifying
Isak + Gyokeres
Striker Pair
+5000
Tournament Odds

Head-to-Head

Japan and Sweden have met 10 times — Sweden lead 6-3-1. No prior World Cup meeting at this stage.

Team Stats Comparison
🇯🇵 Japan 🇸🇪 Sweden
1.7
xG per 90
1.8
50%
Possession
53%
0.9
Goals Conceded/90
0.9
83%
Pass Accuracy
84%
⚡ AI Betting Picks
BEST VALUE
Sweden Win & Under 2.5
Japan press creates moments but Sweden quality wins it 2-1 or 1-0
AI PICK
-140
Draw
Japan beat Germany at 2022 — at +255 the upset is real value
VALUE
+255
Kaoru Mitoma Anytime Scorer
Best Japanese attacker, creates from left side vs any defense
HOT
+220
Place These Bets at DraftKings →
⭐ Fantasy Picks — This Match
DFS OPTIMIZED
1
🇸🇪
Alexander Isak
FWD · Sweden · 26 yrs · Clinical finisher, pace vs Japan high line
30.4
Proj. Pts
16% owned
2
🇯🇵
Kaoru Mitoma
FWD · Japan · 27 yrs · Best Japan attacker, creates vs any defense
27.8
Proj. Pts
13% owned
3
🇸🇪
Viktor Gyokeres
FWD · Sweden · 26 yrs · 43 goals in 23/24, impact guaranteed
28.1
Proj. Pts
14% owned
4
🇯🇵
Ritsu Doan
MID · Japan · 26 yrs · Right-side threat, set piece involvement
23.4
Proj. Pts
10% owned
5
🇸🇪
Dejan Kulusevski
MID · Sweden · 24 yrs · Right-side creativity, 5 qualifying assists
24.8
Proj. Pts
11% owned
Match venue